Analyzing the population reality of Ajloun Governorate and its future trends using Geographic Information Systems

Abstract

Population studies are considered the axis and basis on which many studies related to development and planning depend, which seeks to improve the social and economic level of the population through the exploitation of available natural resources in a sustainable manner commensurate with the number of the population. Therefore, this research aims to analyze the population reality of Ajloun Governorate and predict the number of its future population according to the administrative boundaries of the municipalities. Through conducting a spatial analysis of the population distribution based on Geographic Information Systems which is considered one of the best modern technologies in designing spatial maps. Where the development of the population and its distribution within the boundaries of the governorate was tracked in the period from 2017 to 2021, based on statistical and analytical methods by building a geographic population database for Ajloun Governorate. And the representation of the results using ArcMap 10.8 software in the form of maps, tables, and graphs in order to interpret the demographic characteristics. Then estimate the future population until the year 2052 based on the population censuses for the years 2004 and 2015 in order to determine the level of development in population size. This, in turn, will help planners and decision-makers in preparing future plans and programs for the study area. One of the most important findings of the study is the expectation that the population of the governorate will double to three and a half times during the next three decades. So, it is recommended to develop new population policies that ensure the preservation of natural resources and the non-occurrence of urban encroachment on agricultural and forest lands that characterize the study area.