Variation in trends of maximum temperature change on the Libyan coast for the period (1961-2099) by using spatial techniques.

Abstract

   This research aims to predict the maximum temperatures for three selected stations from the Libyan coast, which are the Benina meteorological station to represent the eastern coast, the Sirte meteorological station to represent the central coast, and the Tripoli airport meteorological station to represent the western coast for the period (2010-2099). Depending on the maximum temperature monitored and recorded at the Libyan National Meteorological Center for the base period (1961-1990) using the ((Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM)) technique, according to climate change scenarios (A2a) (B2a); these are scenarios approved by the concerned team. Climate change, IPCC, in a report known as SRES in the year 2000 to develop climate and environmental forecasts based on greenhouse gases. In addition to the use of statistical analysis methods by means of the SPSS program to detect the trends of change in the maximum temperatures of the three stations during the study periods, namely: (1961-1990), (2039-2010), (2069-2040), (2070-2099), To achieve the objectives of the study, the equation of variance and total variance was applied between the three study stations.

 The results showed trends for the change in the annual and seasonal maximum temperature towards an increase compared to the first period (the base period) for the three stations and at a level of statistical significance less than 0.05. Contrast results confirmed that there is a discrepancy and difference in the averages of the three stations.