Climate Change Impact on Population Migration in Rutba District

Abstract

The study aims to demonstrate the impact that climate change can have on population movements that may occur in arid and semi-arid areas in general in the western region of Iraq and Rutba district in particular. To achieve this, the researchers adopted a scientific methodology to determine the nature of the impact of climate change on migration, including relying on the (Minitab Statistical Software) program In drawing the trends of changes observed by the researchers, including the amount of change based on the trend line equation, and showing each rate multiplied by the number of years, and knowing the direction of change for both temperatures and rainfall during (36) years for the Rutba station. As for the data of the study area, the population in (1997) was (20,848) people, while in (2023) it reached (65,000) people. The researchers were able to obtain population migration data from the departments affiliated with the study area, as (6,020) people migrated for various reasons. The study concluded that the amount of change in the minimum temperature of Rutba station reached (1.14) C, while the highest amount of monthly change was recorded in September with a change of (2.95) C, and the trend line indicates an increase. Likewise, the amount of change in the maximum temperature reached (1.63) C, while the highest amount of monthly change was recorded in August, reaching (3.57) C, and the change indicator is toward an increase. As for April, the amount of change was negative toward a decrease, reaching (-1.15 C). While the amount of change in rainfall for the study period was an indicator toward a decrease, reaching (-19.26 mm). As for the monthly changes, the winter and autumn months recorded a negative amount of change, reaching (-15.73) in December, and the trend line indicator is toward a decrease. While in April, the highest amount of change was recorded as positive, and the trend line indicator is toward an increase, as the amount of change in them reached (4.68 C). About (1020) people migrated due to the security situation, while (5000) people migrated due to climate change.