Analysis of peak rainfall change at Baghdad station

Abstract

The study of peak rainfall is a relatively recent topic in climatology, given its profound scientific implications for understanding the temporal behavior of rainfall and its variations from one region to another. Rainfall is not distributed randomly throughout the year, but rather follows specific temporal patterns characterized by peak periods known as “peaks.” Peak rainfall,” which is the stage when rainfall amounts reach their highest levels during an annual or seasonal climate cycle.Interest in peak rainfall is not limited to determining the timing of peak rainfall, but extends to analyzing its characteristics and changes..The importance of studying peak rainfall lies in its direct impact on numerous human activities, particularly in agriculture and water resource management. Determining its timing and intensity helps improve agricultural planning and mitigate risks associated with extreme weather events such as droughts or floods. It also contributes to supporting future research.onPotential climate changes.

This study aims to analyze changetoRainy Bites At Baghdad station duringFor the rainy seasons ((1988–1989-2023-2024))By tracking the timing and intensity of the highest annual rainfall month, and analyzing its temporal behavior using modern statistical methods, particularly the Mann-Kandl test and the Sin slope.The research yielded the following results:

• There is a clear spatial variation in rainfall amounts at the Baghdad station, with a concentration during the winter months, especially January, and an irregular temporal distribution.
• The rainfall peak exhibited non-linear behavior, as it did not follow a fixed trend but rather went through phased shifts between early and late arrivals..
• March recorded the highest frequency of the rainfall peak at the Baghdad station, indicating the importance of the end of winter and the beginning of spring in achieving the rainfall peak..actual level Duration College Out month March As month The most repeatedly in registration The summit Rain, so reached Its repetition(10)And in proportion(27.78%), He is what Meaning that more From (25%) of years the study The end In it The summit Matariya Annual in this month lonliness.
• This is clearly evident when analyzing partial time cycles, as the Baghdad station recorded a recent trend towards a delayed peak rainfall towards late winter and early spring.
• It becomes clear that the time series for Baghdad station went through two opposing phases.NFirst stage with a moral orientation towards early placementSummitThe first cycle represents this, followed by two subsequent phases with a significant trend toward delay, represented by the second and third cycles. When these opposing trends converged over the total duration, the final result was positive but weak; that is, the net effect was in favor of relative delay, but not as strong as that seen in the two later cycles individually..