Future Forecasts of Electricity Production and Consumption in the Southern Governorates of Iraq Using the Box–Jenkins Methodology for the Period (2000–2030) (A Statistical Geographical Study)

Abstract

This study examines the reality of electricity production and consumption in the southern governorates of Iraq for the period (2000–2030) by developing forecasting models based on the Box–Jenkins methodology (ARIMA). The study aims to identify future trends in electrical energy and to support planning processes in this vital sector.

The research relies on annual data of electricity production and consumption in the southern governorates of Iraq for the period (2000–2023). The time series were tested for stationarity and statistically processed, after which the most appropriate model was selected based on approved statistical criteria. Following the verification of the model’s adequacy, it was employed to generate forecasts up to the year 2030.

The results indicate a growing gap between electricity production and consumption in the coming years if the current electricity system continues without development. It is expected that the electricity production deficit in the study area will reach approximately 1,749,834 MWh by 2030, reflecting a decline of 8.9%, while electricity consumption is projected to increase by about 9,665,142 MWh, representing a growth rate of 38.9% over the same period.

These findings highlight the urgent need to develop the electricity system, enhance the efficiency of production, distribution, and transmission networks, and expand the use of alternative energy sources to ensure energy sustainability in the southern governorates of Iraq.