Negative Thermal Extremes in Baghdad Governorate During the Period (1993–2023)

Abstract

Negative thermal extremes represent one of the most prominent manifestations of climate change in semi-arid regions, including Baghdad Governorate. This phenomenon refers to the decrease in temperature below its long-term averages, resulting in severe cold spells that have significant impacts on humans, the environment, and various economic activities.

   The importance of this study arises from the fact that negative thermal extremes affect several vital sectors—particularly agriculture, energy, and public health—by reducing crop productivity, increasing energy demand for heating, and elevating the incidence of cold-related diseases.

   The study aims to investigate the characteristics of negative thermal extremes in Baghdad Governorate by analyzing daily minimum temperature data recorded at Baghdad Meteorological Station for the period (1993–2023). Cold waves, frost events, and hail occurrences were adopted as key indicators of negative thermal extremes.

  The findings revealed that cold waves occurred 54 times, frost events 15 times, and hail 11 times during the study period. The occurrence of these extremes is attributed to several meteorological factors, notably the influence of high-pressure systems such as the Siberian and European anticyclones, as well as the intrusion of cold polar air masses over the study area, which collectively contributed to the manifestation of negative thermal anomalies.