Demographic variables affecting population growth in Baghdad Governorate

Abstract

Abstract:-

    The research aims to study and analyze the demographic variables represented by (birth rate, death rate, and migration) and to clarify how these variables affect the population growth in the districts of Baghdad Governorate for the years (2013-2023), where the research showed that the size of the population of Baghdad Governorate was characterized by a numerical increase for the two research years (2013-2023), as the population of the province reached (7406968 million people) for the year 2013, to increase to (9235181 million people) for the year 2023, and the district of Rusafa ranked first in terms of population by (22.4%-22.3%) for the two research years. This is due to the large area of the district, as well as other reasons, which are internal migration from other governorates to Baghdad Governorate, including the district of Rusafa, especially to urban areas in search of job opportunities, and the districts of Al-Tarmiya and Al-Rashidiya came in last place with the lowest percentage in terms of population, amounting to (1.8% - 1.8%) and (0.5% - 0.5%) respectively and for the two years of research because they are areas of an agricultural nature and agricultural areas are the largest area of residential areas, despite the urban sprawl at the expense of Agricultural areas. In order to achieve the goal of the research and support its hypothesis, the researcher used a set of statistical methods, namely Pearson's simple correlation coefficient and multi-step linear regression analysis to reach an accurate analysis and interpretation of the phenomenon of population growth and its relationship with demographic variables, and the research found that the population of Baghdad province increased during the research period with varying effects of demographic variables on the growth rate of the population of the province, as the rate of net migration played a major role in increasing the population growth rate, while the effect of the death rate was less severe, and the birth rate was The high has a moderate impact on the population growth rate in the governorate, as some districts have been affected by an increase or decrease in the number of population.

Keywords (growth rate, births, deaths, migration)