Demographic and Social Variables Affecting Population Fertility Levels in Al-Karkh and Al-Rusafa Districts in 2024

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the impact of demographic and social variables on fertility levels in the Al-Karkh and Al-Rusafa districts for the year 2024. It also seeks to examine the differences in fertility patterns between the two districts, focusing on the varying influence of these variables in each area, to gain a deeper understanding of the factors shaping reproductive behavior within the urban context of Baghdad. The field study was conducted on a sample of 700 households, equally distributed across seven administrative units using a simple random sampling method. Data were analyzed using SPSS software.The results revealed that fertility tends to increase with a lower average age at marriage, which was 25.9 years across the study area, reaching its lowest in Baghdad Al-Jadida (23.4 years) and highest in Al-Mansour (28.5 years). Fertility was also positively associated with the length of marital life, with women married for over 15 years having an average of 4.7 children, compared to only 0.8 children among those married for less than 5 years. A clear inverse relationship was found between women’s educational attainment and fertility, as women with a diploma or higher had an average of 2.2 children, while those with only primary education had 4.9 children on average. The findings further showed that low fertility in certain areas was not solely linked to women’s use of family planning methods, as in Al-Mansour where usage was 26% despite recording the lowest fertility level, indicating the influence of other factors such as age at marriage and education. Moreover, male use of family planning methods was highest in Al-Mansour (28%) and lowest in Baghdad Al-Jadida (12%), suggesting that men’s involvement in family planning decisions is among the key variables influencing reduced fertility.